Theories on the origin of Croats

The origin of the  tribe before the is uncertain. The modern Croats are undoubtedly a people, but the archaeological and other historic evidence on the migration of the Slavic settlers, the character of native population on present-day territory of Croatia, and their mutual relationship and influences is sparse.

According to the most widely accepted view, the Croatian tribe in the  moved from the area north of the  and east of the river  (referred to as ) and migrated into the western. had formed the in the upper, while their subgroup  created the Principalities of : ,  and. Another wave of Slavic migrants from subsequently founded the Principality of.

The in the early 19th century promoted an  "autochthonous" model,   abandoned by the mid-19th century. A "revised" theory, developed by argues that the actual number of Slavic settlers was small and that the  ethnic substratum was prevalent for formation of Croatian ethnicity.

Some researchers claim that the Croatian people are of Iranian origins. This theory is however not supported by genetic evidence.

Genetics
, on the Y chromosome line, a majority (>87%) of Croats belong to one of the three major an Y-DNA s -- (38%),  35% and  16%

All three groups migrated to Europe during the around 30,000-20,000 BC. Later,  lineages, originating in the  and that brought  to Europe, are present in surprisingly low numbers. The s, and  constitute together less than 10% - significantly lower than other populations in the region.

Furthermore the dominant presence of is rather interesting. This group exists in Europe only and is fairly wide-spread, but in relatively small percentages. Its frequency in the Balkans is high, but the only populations that have similar levels of the I group are the ns.

There are a number of relevant conclusions that can be drawn from the genetic data.

First of all it gives strong support to the theory that the region of modern day Croatia served as a refuge for northern populations during the (LGM). After the LGM there was a migration to the north of the people whose offspring today form a significant portion of the three aforementioned Scandinavian populations. Those who decided to stay are the ancestors of about 38 per cent of modern day Croats.

The second conclusion that can be drawn is that the theory of an Iranian origin has little genetic support. Modern-day Iranians have a significantly different haplogroup distribution, although millennia ago Persia may have been home to altogether different peoples. Only a relatively small percentage of the Croats belong to one of the haplogroups that is common in the Middle East. The low frequency of these groups is consistent with the minor migration of Neolithic farmers from the Middle East that occurred around 10,000 years ago.

And the third conclusion is that modern-day Croats may not have that much genetically in common with the Croats of the proto-Slavic origin. The R1a haplogroup that is usually at 40-60% levels in most an countries is at 35% within the Croat population. Genetic evidence points to the fact that there was a high degree of mixing of the newly arrived Croat tribes with the indigenous populations that were already present in the region of the modern day Croatia. Hence, most modern day Croats are descended from the original European population of the region and have lived in the territory by other names, such as and their forebears. These original inhabitants also served an important role in re-populating Europe after the last ice age.